A structural approach to latency prediction

Several models have been recently proposed for predicting the latency of end to end Internet paths. These models treat the Internet as a black-box, ignoring its internal structure. While these models are simple, they can often fail systematically; for example, the most widely used models use metric embeddings that predict no benefit to detour routes even though half of all Internet routes can benefit from detours.In this paper, we adopt a structural approach that predicts path latency based on measurements of the Internet's routing topology, PoP connectivity, and routing policy. We find that our approach outperforms Vivaldi, the most widely used black-box model. Furthermore, unlike metric embeddings, our approach successfully predicts 65% of detour routes in the Internet. The number of measurements used in our approach is comparable with that required by black box techniques, but using traceroutes instead of pings.